North Carolina Senate race 2026: Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley

The basics

North Carolinians vote Nov. 3 for the seat held by Republican Thom Tillis, who dropped his reelection bid after voting against the 2025 tax and spending law that President Donald Trump calls the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." Tillis argued the law's Medicaid cuts would take billions out of the state's health care economy, WRAL reported. Whatley won the Republican primary with 64.6% of the vote after Trump endorsed him, and Cooper won the Democratic primary with 92%. Green Party nominee Michael Dublin and Libertarian Shannon Bray are also on the ballot.

North Carolina backed Trump in 2020 and 2024, but Democrats have won recent governor's races: Josh Stein won in 2024 by 55% to 40%, WRAL noted. Democrats have not won a Senate race in the state since Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Trump's approval among likely North Carolina voters was 37% in the WRAL/WSOC poll, with 60% disapproving.

The candidates

Roy Cooper (D) served two terms as governor, from 2017 to 2025, after four terms as state attorney general. His campaign slogan is "Make Stuff Cost Less," and he says, "We have a plan to make stuff cost less and make life better for North Carolinians," Spectrum News reported.

Michael Whatley (R) chaired the Republican National Committee and, before that, the North Carolina Republican Party. He is less well known statewide than Cooper. His early events focused on crime. More recently he has held economic events under the banner "Make More Keep More." Trump and Vice President JD Vance held rallies for him in September.

Where the race stands

Cooper has led every recent independent poll by wide margins. A WRAL/WSOC poll by SurveyUSA (Oct. 7–11, 643 likely voters, ±5) had Cooper 54%, Whatley 40%. High Point University/YouGov had the same 54–40 result, and East Carolina University (Sept. 30–Oct. 3) had Cooper ahead by 7. STTPN's average of six recent independent polls is Cooper 52.3%, Whatley 40%.

Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, and Inside Elections rates it Lean Democratic. Cooper had raised about $49.6 million through Oct. 14, compared with about $13.7 million for Whatley, according to the FEC. The Senate Leadership Fund canceled $30 million it had planned to spend for Whatley and moved it to Kansas, The Guardian reported, and Whatley's campaign has pulled back from TV advertising. Whatley's spokesman says undecided voters are still in play and the race "will continue to tighten."

The issues

Costs

Both campaigns center on affordability. Cooper blames rising prices on tariffs and the war in Iran and has called for ending both. Whatley defends Trump's tariffs and the war and says "Roy Cooper made stuff cost more" as governor.

The 2025 law and Medicaid

Whatley strongly supports the 2025 tax and spending law. Cooper has said he would have voted against it, and Whatley has criticized him for that. Democrats point to the law's Medicaid cuts, which WRAL reported exceed $1 trillion nationally.

Crime

Whatley and Republican groups have focused on public safety. A Fox News report said a teacher's killing renewed scrutiny of Cooper's criminal justice record. Cooper's campaign has kept its focus on prices.

Controversies

The two candidates have not debated, and neither campaign responded to Spectrum News's debate invitations. Both have favored friendly outlets and small events. A Catawba College political scientist said, "They're playing it safe." Cooper's campaign says it has held "large-scale events" open to the public.

Fox News reported that Whatley holds energy stocks as data center development expands in the state. Tillis, in a book published this year, argued that Whatley was handicapped from the start by having to defend Trump's policies, including the Medicaid cuts.