Texas Senate race 2026: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

The basics

Texans vote Nov. 3 for the Senate seat held since 2003 by Republican John Cornyn. Cornyn lost the Republican nomination to Ken Paxton, who won the May 26 runoff with about 64% of the vote after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump. James Talarico won the March 3 Democratic primary over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.

The candidates

Ken Paxton (R) has been Texas attorney general since 2015. He was impeached by the Republican led Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the state Senate. As attorney general he has sued the Biden administration and companies such as Pfizer, and he runs on that record. His economic plan, "Protecting the Texas Promise," includes a $25,000 deduction for medical expenses and a "healthy living deduction" for costs like youth sports fees and gym memberships, he told supporters in Georgetown on Oct. 24.

James Talarico (D) is a state representative from the Austin area and a former middle school teacher and seminary student. His economic plan, the "New American Dream," calls for a higher minimum wage, cancelling medical debt, universal child care and paid family leave, according to The Texas Tribune. He says he takes no corporate PAC money and backs congressional term limits and an end to gerrymandering.

Where the race stands

Independent polls taken in the second half of October show Talarico slightly ahead. A CNN poll by SSRS (Oct. 20–27, 923 likely voters, ±4.2 points) had Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%. A Texas Southern University poll (Oct. 21–25, 2,000 likely voters, ±2.2) had Talarico 49%, Paxton 47%, and Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 20–21) found a 45–45 tie. STTPN's average of the six most recent independent polls is Talarico 49.2%, Paxton 45.8%, a lead about the size of the typical margin of error.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race a Toss-up; Inside Elections rates it Tilt Democratic. Talarico had raised about $146 million through Oct. 14, compared with about $22 million for Paxton, according to the FEC. Talarico's $64 million third quarter was a record for a Senate candidate. Outside groups have narrowed the gap: the Senate Leadership Fund committed more than $100 million to help Paxton, and Elon Musk gave $158 million to that group.

The issues

Cost of living. Paxton argues targeted tax deductions will lower household costs and says "we lose Texas, we lose America" if Republicans lose the seat. Talarico argues that "trickle-down economics" has failed working families and that Paxton "doesn't serve us, he serves himself."

Faith and values. Both candidates talk about religion. Paxton has criticized Talarico for saying "God is non-binary" and has questioned his masculinity, NPR reported. Talarico says his faith drives his focus on the poor and on public schools. Dozens of pastors have endorsed Paxton.

Debates. Talarico accepted several debate invitations, including one from Fox News. Paxton has not agreed to any, and Trump and other Republicans called on him in early October to debate. If none is held, it would be the first Texas Senate race since 2000 without a debate between the major-party nominees.

Controversies

Talarico's campaign has focused on Paxton's 2023 impeachment and on the attorney general's office's handling of a child sex abuse case against former attorney Adam Hoffman, which ended in a plea deal critics called lenient, The New York Times reported. Paxton has not addressed the Hoffman case in detail in the coverage STTPN reviewed. Paxton repeatedly said Talarico is vegan; PolitiFact rated that claim false.

In late October, an AI-generated video framed as a confession from a former student of Talarico spread on X. Researchers told the Associated Press it was likely produced by a Russia linked network; Talarico's campaign called it a deepfake, and X removed the original posts.

Some Republicans who backed Cornyn have not endorsed Paxton, and Cornyn has not raised money for him. Talarico has worked to win over Black voters who backed Crockett in the primary, pledging $25 million for outreach.